این سخنرانی در اختتامیه کنفرانس (پنجشنبه ساعت 16) ارائه میگردد.
◉ سخنران کلیدی: Prof. Baoding Liu ◉ Tsinghua University, China ◉ عنوان سخنرانی: Uncertainty Theory
Abstract: Something is called random if its frequency of occurrence is known. Otherwise, it is called uncertain. The outcome of tossing a coin is an example of randomness. Whenever the coin is fair, the frequency that it will come up heads is 50%. The outcome of a falling cake is an example of uncertainty since the frequency that the cake will land butter-side down is unknown. In order to rationally deal with the possibility that something will happen, there exist two mathematical systems, one is probability theory and the other is uncertainty theory. Probability theory is a branch of mathematics concerned with the analysis of random phenomena, while uncertainty theory is a branch of mathematics concerned with the analysis of uncertain phenomena. In order to use them in practice, the first action we take is to produce a distribution function. If you believe your distribution function is close enough to the real frequency, then you should use probability theory. Otherwise, you have to use uncertainty theory. Perhaps some people may ask how to test whether a distribution function is close enough to the real frequency or not. I have no idea. But, to my knowledge, the distribution function obtained in most practical problems is, unfortunately, not close enough to the frequency. This fact provides a motivation to learn and use uncertainty theory.
This talk will introduce some fundamental concepts of uncertainty theory and discuss why uncertainty theory is useful. This presentation is based on the speaker’s book Uncertainty Theory published by Springer-Verlag, Berlin.
Biography: Baoding Liu received his B.S. degree in 1986 from Nankai University, and his M.S. degree in 1989 and Ph.D. degree in 1993 from Chinese Academy of Sciences. He joined Tsinghua University as Associate Professor in 1996, and was appointed Professor of Mathematics in 1998. Dr. Liu's research led to the development of uncertainty theory.